The Last Days Of America

In studying American history one can conclude that during the darkest hours of the American Revolution there had to have been Divine intervention that guided General Washington to persevere and eventually triumph in securing victory for the United States. In many instances when all hope seemed to be lost the revolution was saved not only by the shrewd and calculating determination of Washington but a higher power that enabled the United States to overcome adversity under fire.

In the ensuing years much has changed since our humble beginning. That Divine intervention that steadied the hands of our Founding Fathers has been cast aside by the greed of man. One has to wonder though about human nature. Is it human nature once people are in a position of power to try and gain more control of that power? And, does power always corrupt the individual in authority considering the times of today? Sad to say in too many instances for over 45 years we have been witness to unparallel corruption in our governmental officials. The Divine guidance has been lost in obscurity and this nation continues to flounder in troubled waters.

The integrity and unselfish character of Washington helped forge what America became. Other men like Thomas Jefferson, Ben Franklin and John Adams embodied the true greatness of a new nation. As we near the end of the second decade of the 21st century Americas greatness has withered on that vine of lost opportunities. From the last 148 years of disingenuous policies and without the slightest concern for the American public the erosion of Americas greatness is almost complete. The blindness of too many to see and the willingness to accept what is continues to accelerate the U.S. departure from greatness to mediocrity.

We have forsaken this nation. Too many of our rights have been stripped away. They have been turned into privileges that we always have to pay. This nation has truly lost it’s way. The individuals we choose to represent us too many times we have chosen unwisely. And, too many times those that could make a difference have always been denied the opportunity to do so.

By all indications have pointed to the fact that the last days of America are upon us. When we have an Administration and too many members of Congress incapable of altering the course of this nation is the reality we face today. Gone are the character and integrity that typified the moral compass this nation had over 200 years ago.

Like all great nations through-out history they have never lasted. A striking parallel between the great power of Ancient Rome is the fact that for a long time Rome was a Democracy, that is up until the time of Julius Caesar. It was Julius Caesar though that established a prime example of political rule of a charismatic strongman whose rationale is the need to rule by force, establishing a violent social order and have a regime involving a strong military role in government. We can see a distinct correlation between Julius Caesar and one Donald Trump. When Julius Caesar came into power was the start of the decline of the Roman Empire.

The similarities between both men is too apparent to ignore. And if Trump remains in power the hand writing is on the wall, sort of speaking, that the last days of America are all readily upon us. We the people have to understand that history does repeat with outcomes very similar to the past. That is unless we have the courage to recognize how we can change the course this nation is on. There is a way to do so. But, the resolve to put in play the reforms to alter the course this nation is on has yet to be displayed.

The Real State Of the Union

With the onslaught of Global Warming striking destruction, and fear the United States faces ever greater challenges with each passing month. The severity of weather patterns all around the globe has only intensified the urgency that humanity is facing the most crucial point in our history. The forces of denial have already hastened the point of no return. With the clock ticking and time running out it is essential that cooler heads prevail. Yet, those climate change deniers cling to their convictions that all is well and good. But, as the wrath of nature rocks a splintered nation millions are continually thrown into an inferno of hopelessness and despair.

Today, the scientific community has sounded the alarm that the planet has at the most 12 years remaining before irreversible damage is done to all life forms all around the globe. As we are seeing right now with the scorching heat and violent storms that continue to annihilate, homes, businesses, lives and livelihoods right here in the US while other parts of the world face one catastrophe after another are all reminders that climate change is one of the most severe threats to all life. The time is now and we had better act to reduce and eliminate the effects of what fossil fuel has and is doing to our world before it really is too late.

With the advent of hurricane season coinciding with the severity and frequency of violent tornadoes and flash floods through-out the mid west and central United States the billions of dollars in damage with an already crippling economy makes it clear that decisive action is needed now to negate the root causes that has placed the United States in such great peril. Not only has our continued use of fossil fuel fueled the catastrophic weather patterns that have caused the greatest desalination point in the worlds oceans but the economic policies of not only the Trump Administration but past administrations have drastically increased the number of Americans from ever achieving the American Dream.

While the media keeps focusing on how well the economy is doing, but underneath this facade of all is well and good lies a mounting avalanche of an economic catastrophe that would make the financial crisis of 2008 look like a picnic. News that isn’t reported, I bet for obvious reasons, is a far cry from what is actually reported by the main stream media. In truth there are several facts that emphatically state quite the contrary to what the media keeps reporting about the state of the US economy. When there are over 137 million Americans faced with acute financial hardship due to medical bills with more Americans every month declaring bankruptcy due to the lack of medical coverage and the high cost of medical care is a sure sign this country needs Medicare For All.

This is just the start of the financial crack in our fragile economy. A crack that is only getting wider and pretty soon our whole economy will come crashing down on an unsuspecting public. All because the media is either oblivious to the facts or are intentionally steering the public away from the real state of our economy. With the retail industry continuing it’s decline is more evident each week when there where over 6,000 stores that closed in the first half of this year alone. More closures continue to showcase the disturbing signs that all is not well and good in the American economy.

Today, 50% of our population can’t meet their basic needs like food, shelter, clean fresh water and just about everything essential for day to day living. The disposable incomes for over 80% of the population is totally insufficient to meet today’s cost of living. The media keeps reminding us that we have a very low unemployment number but what they fail to report is that the United States has over 100 million Americans that don’t have jobs at all. Our once strong manufacturing base has only withered and died on the vine of all the corporate shifts to out source American jobs over seas. Today’s farmers are going bankrupt at a rate higher than they were in the 1970′s. Consumer spending has dropped to an all time low. All of this just adds another dimension to the nations critical condition.

When we add the Trumps tariff wars has only escalated and exasperated the crippling effects of our whole economic future. More to the point is the fact that the future is really in our hands but we must act with decisive action now, not latter, if we are going to not only survive but prosper. There are ways to do just that but we first have to realize just how bad things have gotten and use a plan of direction that details solutions to the many urgent crisis of our times. That plan of direction is what National Economic Reform’s Ten Articles of Confederation and the National Economic Security Reformation Act details. And when they are both implemented this nation and the world will become solidified in a much brighter future for all.

The Business Model and Today’s Economy – A Warning to Universities and Investors

As spring is upon us, this is the time deans and higher education vice presidents across the land embark on their yearly budget exercise. Given the rosy economic scenario painted by improving wages, job reports and corporate profits, it would not be out-of-place to start dreaming of expanding their own little circles and propose larger budgets and increased hiring for their respective units – what Warren Buffett has dubbed the institutional imperative. My warning: beware!

As an academician, I have often heard high-ranking officials espouse how public universities should be run using a business model. My own university president is a strong proponent of the idea. The problem is that universities are saddled with challenges most companies don’t have to deal with. For example, let us suppose that demand for your company’s product goes down. To keep your company viable and responsible to stockholders you will cut down on production. Fewer sales means less personnel will be needed leading to workforce reductions. Despite lower revenue, the bottom line is kept steady by lowering expenses for materials and personnel.

Let’s look at what happens at a university. Let’s suppose demand for your product, classes, goes down – i.e., fewer students are enrolled. The cost of materials to run a class is minimal as compared to personnel and physical plant costs. You can’t shut down buildings so your only recourse is personnel reductions. Here is a problem corporations don’t have. They never have a case where the few remaining clients demand that the company put out as much product as before the reduction in demand. But if you have a class of 40 reduced to 30 or even 20 students the university cannot cancel it. These students registered for the class well in advance, before the semester even began. Their schedules and even graduation are predicated on it. If the class does not make, students will be in an uproar and in this day and age they have no trouble letting the world know – online. As the news become viral, the university will gain a bad reputation. It will affect future enrollment. Any whisper of lower enrollment sends chills down high administrator’s backs.

Here is another difference between corporations and higher education providers. Corporation hires are more fungible. If you let go someone all you need is several weeks’ notice. Not so for academia. You may let go of staff personnel that way but instructors are on an academic year contract. University administrators may decide not to renew a contract for a non-tenured instructor after the academic year but they cannot terminate during. That means hiring and budget decisions have to be made well in advance.

Back in 2007 I was in the middle of this dilemma. I was the founder and Chair of the Idaho State University Budget Committee. Our mandate, as I saw it, was to keep abreast of economic developments so we could best advise administrators of “hiccups” leading to reductions in state allocations to higher education. Once those came about, we would provide advice on budget allocations to programs and hiring. Academic hires have to be done months ahead of time so timely input meant looking ahead at least six months. It was within that time frame I warned our higher administration of the coming economic slowdown and real estate problems at the epicenter of the Financial Crisis. That message went unheeded at the time so, for the next couple of years, our committee was saddled with helping the administration muddle through ever diminishing budgets.

The unemployment rate at the time of my warning in 2007 was 4.4%, wages increased by 0.3% for the month and 4.4% for the year, and S&P 500 profits were up 16% for the year. GDP growth was pegged at 3%. Sound familiar? There was plenty of reason to be optimistic and yet, the future did not play out that way. The same will happen this year, although the main factors behind the economic stall will be different.

There is a financial storm developing. This time around, the low-pressure front will be due to demographic forces resulting in a decrease in spending from the 46-50 age group, a group dubbed the peak spenders. There will be a prolonged and marked decrease in consumer spending that will lead to a protracted economic downturn starting this year and lasting as long as 2023.

State general accounts will dwindle as sales tax revenues drop and a rise in unemployment leads to lower personal tax revenues. These are the two main pillars filling state coffers. The two others are real estate and corporate taxes. While real estate tax revenue will remain steady, corporate tax revenue will mirror plummeting corporate profits. The bottom line is that state support for public universities will take a cut and once again these institutions will have the difficult task of managing their budgets by reducing personnel. This is, therefore, no time to be dreaming about expanding departments, but instead, a time of planning for retrenchment.

Administrators should shun the temptation to pass down the buck and use university reserves to meet the immediate challenge. Next year will be no better. In fact, this downhill process will continue to get worse, and as I mentioned above, will last until 2023. University officials will be forced to face the music at some point in time so they might as well brainstorm and come up with a 5- or 6-year plan to deal with the malaise.

The warning goes double for those invested in the stock market. The same forces at work within state finances will also hobble our economy and wreak havoc on corporate profits and prices. Stock portfolios will take a substantial hit. My advice is to heed the current stock market warning. We just went through a correction, but these are only birth pangs of the financial storm ahead. The wise will use any uptick as an opportunity to whittle down stock holdings. There will be many who will mock me now, but when the brunt of the tempest comes you will want to be totally out of the stock market.